{"id":1311,"date":"2022-10-24T04:24:34","date_gmt":"2022-10-24T04:24:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/?p=1311"},"modified":"2023-08-04T07:39:29","modified_gmt":"2023-08-04T07:39:29","slug":"how-do-recessions-impact-the-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/how-do-recessions-impact-the-stock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"<strong>How do recessions impact the stock market?<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"256\" src=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Native-Batch-1200-x-300-8-1024x256.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Native-Batch-1200-x-300-8-1024x256.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Native-Batch-1200-x-300-8-300x75.png 300w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Native-Batch-1200-x-300-8-768x192.png 768w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Native-Batch-1200-x-300-8-696x174.png 696w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Native-Batch-1200-x-300-8-1068x267.png 1068w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Native-Batch-1200-x-300-8.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently said he \u2018would be stunned\u2019 if the US didn\u2019t end up in a recession in 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But what is a recession?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, what a recession looks like in real terms and how it can impact the stock market, yields less clear cut answers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The state of the US economy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, looking at the broader state of the US and global economy is probably more important than arguing over the \u2018technical definition\u2019 of a recession. Here\u2019s a quick read on the state of the US economy right now:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Interest rates are at multi-decade highs, with the US Federal Funds rate sitting at between 3.00% to 3.25%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In September inflation again came in ahead of economist expectations, rising to 8.2%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GDP growth has been weak for the last two quarters, coming in at -1.6% in Q1 and then -0.6% in Q2 in 2022&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite the US unemployment rate standing at just 3.5%, there are still over 10 million job openings in the country &#8211; suggesting dislocations in the labor market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Amid this worrying economic data, we\u2019ve seen stocks fall significantly in 2022. Since the start of the year the S&amp;P 500 index has dropped a staggering 22% or 1,100 points &#8211; to October 20, 2022.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Individual names that rode the bull run of the last decade &#8211; the likes of Peloton, Meta (Facebook), and Tesla &#8211; are down even more than that. So what comes next?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How recessions impact stocks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether you think we are (1) currently in a recession, (2) heading for one, or (3) will be able to avoid one, below we look at how recessions have historically impacted stock market performance, according to research from Darrow Wealth Management.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s a snapshot:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/ZyxUHQWSxTd8HwcO6sj_1mFZR5yItCkx6hN7h9yzuL7NAURFAQgYhpSoQtI4CiO09iqIWQYuYz77DkuXZfnhqrJgqUF3cV_l9mEPqsMteOmaDp2UzLwF7as_dkCiqZ8pQv-617hTcUfxLJucEqezhdRVwMNwUVFCEx5xem4J88C-kf0-D1ViNKrYzA\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\">Source: Darrow Wealth Management <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s start with the bad news. In the lead up to a recession and during one, you can expect stocks to fall 2% and 1% on average, respectively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep in mind, that\u2019s just an average. During the 2007 GFC-fuelled recession for example, stocks actually fell a staggering 37%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now here\u2019s the good news. After a recession, stocks tend to rise. Not only that, but the further you move away from a recession, the higher average stock returns you\u2019re likely to see, according to that research.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check it out. 6-months after a recession, stocks on average gain 7%, 12-months after that figure rises to 16%, and then a full 2-years after a recession stocks have on average returned an impressive 20%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How to invest in US stocks, with Syfe<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With Syfe, you can invest in the world\u2019s best US companies &amp; ETFs, plus leading crypto \u2013 all from the palm of your hand. <a href=\"https:\/\/syfe.onelink.me\/diya\/4lupdsm0\">Click here to download the Syfe app<\/a> now to try it for yourself.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Want to learn more about the markets? We just published a blockbuster guide on how to invest in US stocks in Australia. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/how-to-buy-and-invest-in-us-stocks-in-australia-2022-guide\/\">Read it here.<\/a> ( FYI, we may be seeing a lot of volatility right now, but US stocks have outperformed ASX stocks significantly in the last 5-years.)\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-image uagb-block-675470c9 wp-block-uagb-image--layout-default wp-block-uagb-image--effect-static wp-block-uagb-image--align-none\"><figure class=\"wp-block-uagb-image__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SYFE50_landscape-1024x536.png \" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 150px\" src=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SYFE50_landscape-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"uag-image-2681\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" title=\"\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><sub>This article\/webinar is brought to you by Syfe Australia Pty Ltd., CAR number 1295306 of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL 337927). Disclaimer: Investing involves risk including the risk of losing your invested amount. We do not provide personalised advice or recommendations.&nbsp; Any information we provide is general advice and current at the time&nbsp; written. Please speak to your Financial or Tax adviser for personal advice. Any reference to an investment\u2019s past or potential performance is not an indication of any specific outcome or profit.&nbsp;<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><sub>Cryptocurrency investments available through the cryptocurrency trading services provided by Syfe are not currently regulated as financial products under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) or under Australian law. Unlike other trading services offered by Syfe such as that in relation to stocks, the cryptocurrency trading services are not covered under the corporate authorised representative arrangement with Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL 337927). This means consumer protections are minimal and you may not be protected if any cryptocurrency which you have invested in fails or any service provider involved in providing you with cryptocurrency fails.<\/sub><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><sub>INVESTING IN AND TRADING CRYPTOCURRENCIES INVOLVES RISK.<\/sub><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently said he \u2018would be stunned\u2019 if the US didn\u2019t end up in a recession in 2023.&nbsp; But what is a recession? While the technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, what a recession looks like in real terms and how it can impact the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":1313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[217],"tags":[30,148,149,146,36,147,37],"class_list":{"0":"post-1311","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-most_popular","8":"tag-etf","9":"tag-outlook","10":"tag-post-recession","11":"tag-recession","12":"tag-sp500","13":"tag-upside","14":"tag-us-stocks"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How do recessions impact the stock market?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We analyse how 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investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently said he \u2018would be stunned\u2019 if the US didn\u2019t end up in a recession in 2023.&nbsp; But what is a recession? 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