{"id":2663,"date":"2023-07-27T07:13:46","date_gmt":"2023-07-27T07:13:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/?p=2663"},"modified":"2023-08-04T07:04:59","modified_gmt":"2023-08-04T07:04:59","slug":"fortescue-metals-group-the-story-so-far-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/au\/learn\/fortescue-metals-group-the-story-so-far-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Fortescue Metals Group: The Story So Far in 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Before Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) reports their latest set of results during Australia\u2019s upcoming earnings season, take a look back at our analysis and summary of the company\u2019s recent operating results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The piece below was originally published in our <\/strong>ASX 2023 Playbook<\/strong><\/a>: What\u2019s your next move – during the start of 2023. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Syfe you can invest in top Aussies stocks<\/a> like CBA, BHP, and FMG – starting from A$4.99 per trade. Download our ASX Playbook<\/a> now to make sure you\u2019re prepared for Australia\u2019s upcoming corporate earnings season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FMG interim profits, dividend lower as iron ore prices moderate<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The pure play iron ore miner saw its top and bottom line growth slow in the half ending 31 December 2022, as macroeconomic headwinds intensified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings, revenue slump<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

FMG\u2019s leverage to the price of iron ore was on full display with the release of its fiscal 2023 interim earnings for the half ending 31 December 2022, with the pure play iron ore miner reporting declining operational results across the board. With average iron ore prices in decline, Fortescue saw its total interim revenue dip 4% to US$7.8 billion, down from US$8.1 billion in the first half of fiscal 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key data point:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FMG made US$87 per tonne of iron ore sold – equal to a 86% realisation of the Platts 62% benchmark, up from a 70% realisation a year prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What to watch for:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Realisation is particularly important as it gives investors insights into the current supply-demand dynamics of the iron ore markets – with a higher realisation figure implying greater demand for FMG\u2019s iron ore products. As a result, investors should pay particular attention to how this figure changes over time given its significant impact on the miner\u2019s ability to generate revenue. Despite those realisation increases, weaker revenue flowed onto the miner\u2019s bottom line: EBITDA was down 9% year on year to US$4.35 billion and net profits fell a more pronounced 15% to US$2.37 billion, in the half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dividend down 15%<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In absolute terms, FMG announced a lower dividend during its interim results report. The interim dividend was A$0.75 per share – down from the A$0.86 per share dividend paid a year ago – representing a decline of 13% year on year. That interim dividend represents a 65% payout of net earnings – in line with the company\u2019s dividend policy of paying out between 50% to 80% of earnings in the form of dividends to investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why it matters:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FMG\u2019s shareholder friendly dividend policy and elevated payouts over the last few years have arguably contributed to demand for the miner\u2019s stock, its valuation, and its recent share price run up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What to watch for:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Changes in FMG\u2019s dividend policy or a material decline in the company\u2019s revenue and earnings could potentially impact the viability of the miner\u2019s above-market dividend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iron Bridge almost complete<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Known for producing iron ore below the 62% grade – the miner shipped 96.9 million tonnes of iron ore in the half ending December 31, 2022 – representing a 4% increase year on year. The company has also been making moves to diversify its product mix – with the Iron Bridge Project, which is said to deliver ores up to the grade of 67% – set to start first production in the March 2023 quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why it matters:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher grade ore could help with FMG\u2019s average price realisation and help offset demand shifts away from the lower grade ore that has become increasingly popular in recent years. By diversifying its iron ore product mix across both low and higher grades, FMG would be better placed to deal with changes in demand for different grades of ore, making the miner\u2019s revenue more resilient while potentially increasing the quality of its earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking towards the remainder of fiscal 2023, FMG reiterated its prior guidance across shipment forecasts and capital expenditure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key data point:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FMG\u2019s management team reiterated prior guidance, saying the miner is on track to ship between 187 million and 192 million tonnes of iron ore in fiscal 2023, and total capital expenditure is expected to come in at between US$2.7 to US$3.1 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What to watch for:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors should monitor FMG\u2019s upcoming production reports – which are released to cover quarterly operating results not covered in a full year or interim reports. These reports can help investors get a better sense of demand for iron ore prices, up-to-date iron ore price realisation levels for FMG, and to see if any upwards or downwards revisions are made to the miner\u2019s shipment expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Investing involves risk, including the risk of losing your invested amount. Any information that may be in this communication is general in nature only and is current at the time of writing. Syfe does not make recommendations of any kind or provide personal advice that take into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of the information in light of your own objectives, financial situation or needs before acting on such information, and\/or speak to your financial or tax adviser for personal advice. Past performance figures are based on information provided by third parties and may not be accurate. Any references to past performance and future indications are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. Syfe does not intend for any statement made here to relate to the acquisition or disposal of any shares in the companies or other financial products named here. Syfe makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this communication.<\/sup><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Before Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) reports their latest set of results during Australia\u2019s upcoming earnings season, take a look back at our analysis and summary of the company\u2019s recent operating results.  The piece below was originally published in our ASX 2023 Playbook: What\u2019s your next move – during the start of 2023.  With Syfe you […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":2655,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[218],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2663","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-investment_ideas"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFortescue Metals Group: The Story So Far in 2023 - Syfe Australia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Before Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) reports their latest set of results during 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