{"id":5089,"date":"2024-08-27T13:40:26","date_gmt":"2024-08-27T05:40:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/?p=5089"},"modified":"2024-08-27T13:40:43","modified_gmt":"2024-08-27T05:40:43","slug":"how-to-prepare-for-a-recession%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/how-to-prepare-for-a-recession%ef%bc%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Prepare for a Recession\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The word \u201crecession\u201d has been everywhere lately. Headlines warn of an impending US recession, social media is abuzz with predictions of a market crash, and it\u2019s hard not to feel a sense of unease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what does a recession really mean, and how can we prepare? After studying recessions in the US since the 1950s, here\u2019s what we\u2019ve learned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is recession? <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While there is no official definition, recession generally refers to a period of decline in economic activity. Brief declines in the economy, however, are not necessarily considered a recession. Most analysts use two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth <\/strong>as a benchmark for a \u201ctechnical recession\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the July 2024 World Economic Outlook<\/a> by the IMF projects that the US economy will grow by 2.6% in 2024, then moderate to 1.9% in 2025. In its June economic projections, the Fed<\/a>  forecasts US economic growth of 2.1% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. So according to some of the top economists in the world, the US\u2019 economic growth is expected to moderate rather than going into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How the US stock market performed during economic recessions? <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Source: Forbes, last updated 14 Apr 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What if the economists are wrong about the US economy, and a recession does hit in the near term? Here are three key lessons we\u2019ve learned from studying S&P 500 returns around recessions since the 1950s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Recessions tend to be short-lived. <\/strong>Based on the 11 recessions since the 1950s, the average duration is 10.3 months. The longest was the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, lasting 18 months. The shortest was the COVID-19 induced recession in 2020, lasting only 2 months<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. It is difficult to predict market reactions to recessions.<\/strong> It\u2019s hard to predict the exact timing of the next recession, and it\u2019s even harder to forecast how the markets will respond. While you might assume that the S&P 500 would decline during recessions, that\u2019s not always the case. In the last 11 recessions, the S&P 500 delivered positive returns in five instances and negative returns in the other six. It\u2019s almost an even split. The average return during these 11 recessions was only  -1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Recessions often present buying opportunities. <\/strong>Counterintuitively, recessions have historically rewarded long-term investors and can create strong near-term buying opportunities. Based on the past 11 recessions since the 1950s, markets tend to stage a strong rally after, or even before, the recession officially ends. The average return of the S&P 500 six months, one year, and two years after a recession is +7%, +16%, and +20% respectively.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    So how to prepare your investments for a recession? <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    While a near-term recession isn\u2019t our base case scenario, and as we discussed earlier, it\u2019s never wise to center your investment strategy solely around timing recessions, there are some good personal finance practices to enhance the resilience for your investment portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n