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\u81ea\u5f9e11\u67081\u65e5\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u964d60\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5f9e 5%\u964d\u81f34.4%\uff0c\u70ba\u5927\u5e02\u5e36\u4f86\u660e\u986f\u7684\u7a4d\u6975\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u9019\u4ee4Syfe\u6536\u606f\u5bf6-\u6052\u5e38\u7d44\u5408\u53ca\u6536\u606f\u5bf6-\u589e\u53d6\u7d44\u5408\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u5f48\u7d042.5%\u81f33\uff05\uff0c\u6536\u5fa99\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5931\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6536\u606f\u5bf610\u670831\u65e5\u81f311\u670821\u65e5\u7684\u8868\u73fe<\/strong>
\u6052\u5e38\u7d44\u5408: 2.47%
\u9032\u53d6\u7d44\u5408: 2.95%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Syfe \u6536\u606f\u5bf6\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u5df2\u7d93\u5fa9\u8607  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c0d\u65bc\u6709\u610f\u7a4d\u7d2f\u88ab\u52d5\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u7684\u5f62\u52e2\u662f\u8003\u616e\u6295\u8cc7\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u5927\u597d\u6642\u6a5f\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e94\u500b\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u7406\u7531<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u5b8c\u6210\u52a0\u606f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u50b5\u5238\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u6539\u5584<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.  \u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8655\u65bc\u591a\u5e74\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u56de\u5831<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. \u50b5\u5238\u5728\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4fdd\u503c\u65b9\u9762\u767c\u63ee\u8457\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. \u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u9054\u5230\u9802\u5cf0\u5f8c\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u512a\u65bc\u73fe\u91d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u53ef\u4ee5\u505c\u6b62\u52a0\u606f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u70ba\u4e86\u61c9\u5c0d\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5df2\u7d93\u555f\u52d5\u81ea20\u4e16\u7d00 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u662f\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u7de9\u89e3\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c2023 \u5e74 10 \u6708\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u7387\u540c\u6bd4\u964d\u81f3 3.2%\uff0c\u70ba 2021 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u503c\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u901a\u8139\u7684\u7de9\u89e3\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u4e5f\u6703\u6e1b\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\u5448\u4e0b\u964d\u8da8\u52e2 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\ufe30\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u5de5\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff0cSyfe Research\uff0c2023 \u5e74 11 \u6708 14 \u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u9810\u671f\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7d93\u7d50\u675f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u884c\u52d5\u3002CME FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5c07\u65bc12 \u6708 FOMC \u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u70ba 99.5%*\u3002\u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u7acb\u5834\u6301\u7e8c\u5230 2024 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u6703\u8b70\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e5f\u9ad8\u9054 93%*\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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*\u6578\u64da\u622a\u81f3 2023 \u5e74 11 \u6708 24 \u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.  \u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8655\u65bc\u591a\u5e74\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u56de\u5831\u5f37\u52c1<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u8d77\u59cb\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8207 5 \u5e74\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u3002\u5f9e\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u8d77\u59cb\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u662f\u5176\u672a\u4f86\u4e94\u5e74\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u6709\u529b\u6839\u64da\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u662f 2008 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002\u4ee5\u6536\u606f\u5bf6\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u6052\u5e38\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u5230\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u70ba7.5%\uff0c\u9032\u53d6\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u5230\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u70ba8.8%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\ufe30Syfe\u3001\u57fa\u91d1\u6982\u6cc1\u4ecb\u7d39\u3002\u622a\u81f3 2023 \u5e74 10 \u6708 31 \u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. \u50b5\u5238\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e0d\u65b7\u6539\u5584 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4fe1\u7528\u8a55\u7d1a\u8cea\u7d20\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4e0a\u8abf\u8a55\u7d1a\u591a\u65bc\u4e0b\u8abf\u8a55\u7d1a\u3002\u57282020\u5e74\u5275\u4e0b\u964d\u7d1a\u8a18\u9304\u5f8c\uff0c\u300c\u660e\u65e5\u4e4b\u661f\u300d\uff0d\u5f9e\u5783\u573e\u7d1a\u5225\u5347\u7d1a\u5230\u6f5b\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u7d1a\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u8d85\u904e\u300c\u58ae\u843d\u5929\u4f7f\u300d\uff0d\u5f9e\u6295\u8cc7\u7d1a\u5225\u964d\u7d1a\u5230\u5783\u573e\u7d1a\u7684\u50b5\u5238\u3002\u9019\u4e3b\u8981\u5f97\u76ca\u65bc\u516c\u53f8\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u6539\u5584\u548c\u53bb\u6760\u687f\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aPIMCO\uff0c2023 \u5e74 6 \u6708 30 \u65e5\uff1a PIMCO, 2023 \u5e74 6 \u6708 30 \u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. \u50b5\u5238\u5728\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\u4fdd\u503c\u65b9\u9762\u767c\u63ee\u95dc\u9375\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8207\u5730\u9707\u5f8c\u7684\u9918\u9707\u985e\u4f3c\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5f8c\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u8cc7\u7522\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5287\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u50b5\u5238\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u7684 “\u514d\u8cbb\u5348\u9910”\uff0c\u5b83\u65e2\u80fd\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u53c8\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u5728\u4fdd\u672c\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0d\u8a00\u800c\u55bb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0b\u5716\u986f\u793a\u4e86\u6301\u7e8c\u9078\u64c7\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u6240\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c60\/40 \u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408–\u5373 60% \u914d\u7f6e\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e 500 \u6307\u6578\uff0c40% \u914d\u7f6e\u5168\u7403\u6838\u5fc3\u50b5\u5238–\u7d93\u5e38\u8655\u65bc\u4e0a\u534a\u5340\u3002\u5728\u904e\u53bb 15 \u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c60\/40 \u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u53ea\u6709 3 \u5e74\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca0\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5373 2008 \u5e74\u30012018 \u5e74\u548c 2022 \u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aPIMCO\uff0c2023 \u5e74 6 \u6708 30 \u65e5\uff1a PIMCO, 2023 \u5e74 6 \u6708 30 \u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. \u5728\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5229\u7387\u9054\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u8dd1\u8d0f\u73fe\u91d1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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