{"id":5084,"date":"2024-08-27T13:41:42","date_gmt":"2024-08-27T05:41:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/?p=5084"},"modified":"2024-08-29T17:42:34","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T09:42:34","slug":"recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/recession\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u505a\u597d\u6e96\u5099\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5095\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-696x392.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-1068x601.jpg 1068w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2-747x420.jpg 747w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/shutterstock_2505470979-1-2.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" 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class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u9019\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u4f46\u8870\u9000\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u6307\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u6642\u671f\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u77ed\u66ab\u4e0b\u884c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c31\u662f\u8870\u9000\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6578\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u5c07\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u5be6\u969b GDP \u8ca0\u589e\u9577\u4f5c\u70ba\u300c\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u300d\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54 (IMF) \u5728 2024 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/07\/16\/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2024\">\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u300b<\/a>\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u5c07\u6703\u589e\u9577 2.6%\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u653e\u7de9\u81f3 1.9%\u3002\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5728 6 \u6708\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\uff0c\u9810\u6599 2024 \u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u5e45 2.1%\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u70ba 2.0%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u4e9b\u5168\u7403\u9802\u5c16\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u5c07\u6703\u653e\u7de9\u800c\u975e\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u5982\u4f55\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXe3xjPXFwE2GQ0Irbsl9z3GWS-H6f8elQAy9u3ucHKaa6ssFfMOu3j3UbuyTbVRvhDzleBsCIXzTjsafYdYSADN-IfgM5yfY_Qx8qKsnUu-pjFhoF3Iul_7TlOs4lImyFh2yTzB3Rs96873tHdRTMRKf1AP?key=bQkNs6HXCqsFW2YI4ywglA\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a \u798f\u5e03\u65af\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u66f4\u65b0\u65bc 2022 \u5e74 4 \u6708 14 \u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u771f\u7684\u6703\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4f86\u81e8\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u600e\u90e8\u7f72\uff1f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u6211\u5011\u5f9e 1950 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u7814\u7a76\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u6240\u5b78\u5230\u7684\u4e09\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7d93\u9a57\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8870\u9000\u5f80\u5f80\u66c7\u82b1\u4e00\u73fe<\/strong>\u3002\u6839\u64da 1950 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684 11 \u6b21\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u70ba 10.3 \u500b\u6708\u3002\u6700\u9577\u7684\u662f 2007-2008 \u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c 18 \u500b\u6708\u3002\u6700\u77ed\u7684\u662f 2020 \u5e74\u7531 COVID-19 \u8a98\u767c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c 2 \u500b\u6708\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53cd\u61c9<\/strong>\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u7684\u78ba\u5207\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u66f4\u96e3\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u5982\u4f55\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5047\u8a2d\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e 500 \u6307\u6578\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\u6703\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e26\u975e\u7e3d\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5728\u904e\u53bb 11 \u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\uff0c\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e 500 \u6307\u6578\u6709 5 \u6b21\u9304\u5f97\u6b63\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u53e6\u5916 6 \u6b21\u5247\u9304\u5f97\u8ca0\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u4e00\u534a\u534a\u3002\u5728\u9019 11 \u6b21\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u50c5\u70ba -1%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5165\u5e02\u6a5f\u6703<\/strong>\u3002\u8207\u76f4\u89ba\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u5f80\u7e3e\u4e0a\u7e3d\u662f\u734e\u52f5\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5275\u9020\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u5165\u5e02\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u6839\u64da 1950 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u904e\u53bb 11 \u6b21\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u5728\u8870\u9000\u6b63\u5f0f\u7d50\u675f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u6a19\u6e96\u666e\u723e 500 \u6307\u6578\u5728\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u516d\u500b\u6708\u3001\u4e00\u5e74\u53ca\u5169\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u7387\u5206\u5225\u70ba +7%\u3001+16% \u53ca +20%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u70ba\u8870\u9000\u505a\u597d\u6295\u8cc7\u6e96\u5099\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u96d6\u7136\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e26\u975e\u6211\u5011\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u6cc1\uff08base case\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u5011\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7684\uff0c\u5c07\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u5b8c\u5168\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6642\u6a5f\u4e0a\u7d55\u975e\u660e\u667a\u4e4b\u8209\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u826f\u597d\u7684\u500b\u4eba\u7406\u8ca1\u505a\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u589e\u5f37\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u5fa9\u539f\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6e96\u5099\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u7dca\u6025\u8cc7\u91d1<\/strong>\u3002\u6e96\u5099\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u61c9\u6025\u8cc7\u91d1\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5207\u52ff\u5c07\u6240\u6709\u5132\u84c4\u6295\u8cc7\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u5448\u73fe\u4e0a\u5347\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u76ee\u6a19\u5728\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u5132\u84c4\u5e33\u6236\u4e2d\u4fdd\u7559\u81f3\u5c11 3-6 \u500b\u6708\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u610f\u5916\uff08\u5982\u5931\u696d\u6216\u91ab\u7642\u6025\u8a3a\uff09\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u7db2\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f60\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u616e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/cash-plus\">\u9748\u6d3b\u5bf6<\/a>\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u8207\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u9280\u884c\u5132\u84c4\u5e33\u6236\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5b83\u65e2\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u53c8\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6aa2\u8996\u4f60\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u8207\u98a8\u96aa\u627f\u53d7\u80fd\u529b<\/strong>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6f5b\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4ee4\u5931\u7720\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6642\u5019\u6aa2\u8a0e\u4f60\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u548c\u98a8\u96aa\u627f\u53d7\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u6e96\u5247\uff1a&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u77ed\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\uff1a<\/strong>\u4ee5\u7a69\u5b9a\u70ba\u512a\u5148\u3002\u591a\u914d\u7f6e\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5c11\u914d\u7f6e\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u53ef\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8cc7\u7de9\u885d\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u53d7\u5230\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u9577\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\uff1a<\/strong>\u64c1\u62b1\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u591a\u914d\u7f6e\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5c11\u914d\u7f6e\u50b5\u5238\u3002\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u9a57\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u80a1\u7968\u6709\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u8aaa\u4ecd\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u56de\u5831\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95dc\u9375\u662f\u78ba\u4fdd\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7b26\u5408\u4f60\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u6700\u9700\u8981\u8cc7\u91d1\u7684\u6642\u5019\u88ab\u8feb\u8667\u640d\u6cbd\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul 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