{"id":8128,"date":"2026-02-25T18:22:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T10:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/?p=8128"},"modified":"2026-02-16T12:48:43","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T04:48:43","slug":"%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f-%e8%95%ad%e6%a2%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f-%e8%95%ad%e6%a2%9d\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8cc7\u5165\u9580\uff5c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6709\u5187\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff1f\u75311929\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u8b1b\u8d77"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/\u7d93\u6fdf-\u856d\u689d\u200b-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8133\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/\u7d93\u6fdf-\u856d\u689d\u200b-1024x576.png 1024w, 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class=\"uagb-toc-link__trigger\">1929\u5e74\u5927\u856d\u689d\u7684\u5e8f\u5e55<\/a><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><a href=\"#\u9280\u884c\u7206\u64e0\u514c\u6f6e\u8ca0\u8ca1\u5bcc\u6548\u61c9\u50b3\u5c0e\u5168\u7403\" class=\"uagb-toc-link__trigger\">\u9280\u884c\u7206\u64e0\u514c\u6f6e\u3000\u8ca0\u8ca1\u5bcc\u6548\u61c9\u50b3\u5c0e\u5168\u7403<\/a><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><a href=\"#\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u5b9a\u7fa9\" class=\"uagb-toc-link__trigger\">\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/a><\/ul><\/ol>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff08\u82f1\u6587\uff1aRecession\uff09\u6700\u666e\u904d\u7684\u300c\u7d93\u9a57\u6cd5\u5247\u300d\u662f\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\u9023\u7e8c2\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5a92\u9ad4\u90fd\u662f\u4ee5\u6b64\u6280\u8853\u5b9a\u7fa9\u8b58\u5225\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u5411\uff0c\u800c\u9999\u6e2f\u57282008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u6642\u671f\u548c2019\u5e74\u9999\u6e2f\u793e\u6703\u52d5\u76ea\u671f\u9593\u90fd\u66fe\u7d93\u9023\u7e8c<a href=\"https:\/\/hk.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/%E7%9C%8B%E5%9C%96%E8%AB%96%E5%B8%82-%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E9%99%B7%E5%85%A5%E6%8A%80%E8%A1%93%E6%80%A7%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E5%AD%A3%E5%BA%A6gdp%E7%92%B0%E6%AF%94%E8%90%8E%E7%B8%AE3-2-131121016.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAASOZmiYsD41t2T6tibtCyDZ3PjzLS1uGCNuPle2tQRTwrtq86tQKENzUNFmUcrcNKypqUbvM5o_P_QwFY7Xjb91pMpCpGi7IjUozeRDIipGVlOzgUwPqMQPc4aN73hNByaLJk49HToXcthquim_WqvVg9JZMLtnNl0XxDf7i5b1\">\u9023\u7e8c2\u5b63<\/a>\u840e\u7e2e\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u54e1\u4ea6\u6703<a href=\"https:\/\/inews.hket.com\/article\/2485127\/%E3%80%90%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E3%80%91%E7%89%B9%E9%A6%96%E8%B2%A1%E7%88%BA%E7%9B%B8%E7%B9%BC%E9%A0%90%E8%AD%A6%20%20%E4%B8%80%E6%96%87%E7%9C%8B%E6%87%82%E6%8A%80%E8%A1%93%E6%80%A7%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80\">\u627f\u8a8d<\/a>\u9999\u6e2f\u51fa\u73fe\u6280\u8853\u6027\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0d\u904e\u5728\u8f03\u70ba\u56b4\u8b39\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8853\u8a9e\u6216\u5b98\u65b9\u6a5f\u69cb\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u6709\u66f4\u7d9c\u5408\u6216\u5168\u9762\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u5c40\uff08NBER\uff09\u5c0d\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u66f4\u70ba\u5168\u9762\uff0c\u5c07\u8870\u9000\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u986f\u8457\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u904d\u53ca\u6574\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u8d85\u904e\u6578\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u5be6\u969bGDP\u3001\u5be6\u969b\u6536\u5165\u3001\u5c31\u696d\u3001\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7522\u548c\u6279\u767c\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u4e2d\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NBER\u5f37\u8abf\u6df1\u5ea6\uff08Depth\uff09\u3001\u64f4\u6563\uff08Diffusion\uff09\u548c\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\uff08Duration\uff09\u7684\u300c3D\u300d\u539f\u5247\u3002\u6bcf\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5728\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6eff\u8db3\uff0c\u4f46\u6975\u7aef\u689d\u4ef6\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u90e8\u5206\u62b5\u6d88\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u4e0a\u7684\u8f03\u5f31\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u5728COVID\u75ab\u60c5\u6642\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u57282\u6708\u81f34\u6708\u9593\u51fa\u73fe\u5d29\u6f70\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u50c5\u67092\u500b\u6708\u3001\u9060\u9060\u672a\u90542\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u5176\u6df1\u5ea6\u8207\u64f4\u6563\u5ea6\u6975\u5927\uff0cNBER\u4ecd\u7136\u5c07\u5176\u5b9a\u7fa9<a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2020\/august\/comparing-the-covid-19-recession-with-the-great-depression\">\u70ba<\/a>\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u66f4\u591a\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u696d\u5c08\u9580\u540d\u8a5e\u89e3\u91cb\uff1a<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%E6%B0%B8%E7%BA%8C-%E5%82%B5%E5%88%B8-perpetual-bond\/\"><strong>\u6c38\u7e8c\u50b5\u5238<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e5%b7%a8%e7%81%bd%e5%82%b5%e5%88%b8-%e6%98%af%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc-%e9%a6%99%e6%b8%af-%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91-%e5%8e%9f%e7%90%86-%e4%bf%9d%e9%9a%aa%e7%9b%b8%e9%80%a3-%e8%8b%b1%e6%96%87\/\"><strong>\u5de8\u707d\u50b5\u5238<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e9%80%8f%e9%81%8e%e6%88%90%e6%9c%ac%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e6%b3%95%e7%a9%8d%e7%b4%af%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e8%b2%a1%e5%af%8c\/\"><strong>\u5e73\u5747\u6210\u672c\u6cd5<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%85%a5%e9%96%80%ef%bd%9c%e7%a7%81%e5%8b%9f%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e8%88%87%e7%a7%81%e5%8b%9f%e8%82%a1%e6%ac%8a%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e6%9c%89%e4%bd%95%e5%88%a5%ef%bc%9f\/\"><strong>\u79c1\u52df\u57fa\u91d1<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e8%b2%a8%e5%b9%a3-%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4-%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91-%e9%a2%a8%e9%9a%aa-%e6%8e%a8%e8%96%a6-money-market-fund-%e4%b8%ad%e6%96%87\/\"><strong>\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e9%a6%99%e6%b8%af-%e9%80%80%e4%bc%91-%e9%95%b7%e5%a3%bd-%e9%a2%a8%e9%9a%aa-%e9%a6%99%e6%b8%af-%e8%8b%b1%e6%96%87-longevity-risk\/\"><strong>\u9577\u58fd\u98a8\u96aa<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/?p=7052\"><strong>\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9<\/strong><\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e6%bb%af%e8%84%b9-stagflation-%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87-%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5\/\"><strong>\u6eef\u8139<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u9032\u7a0b\u8207\u5b78\u8853\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u300d\uff08\u82f1\u6587\uff1aGreat Depression\uff09\u662f\u5f9e1929\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6301\u7e8c\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u73fe\u4ee3\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u885d\u64ca\u5168\u7403\u5404\u570b\uff0c\u6545\u5728\u82f1\u8a9e\u793e\u7fa4\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u5728\u4e2d\u6587\u793e\u7fa4\u4e0d\u6642\u6703\u88ab\u7528\u5230\u7684\u300c\u80a1\u707d\u300d\u3001\u300c\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u300d\u3001\u300c\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u300d\u7b49\uff0c\u4f46\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u300d\u6642\u671f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u3001\u5ee3\u5ea6\u8207\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u53f2\u4e0a\u5747\u7121\u51fa\u5176\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Robert Barro\u8207Jos\u00e9 Urs\u00faa\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u7522\u5b9a\u50f9\u8207\u7f55\u898b\u7d93\u6fdf\u707d\u96e3\u6642<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/system\/files\/working_papers\/w14760\/revisions\/w14760.rev0.pdf\">\u6574\u7406<\/a>\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6db5\u84cb\u591a\u570b\u767e\u9918\u5e74\u6578\u64da\u7684\u6578\u64da\u5eab\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a1929\u5e74\u5927\u856d\u689d\u662f\u548c\u5e73\u6642\u671f\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u707d\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1929\u5e74\u5927\u856d\u689d\u7684\u5e8f\u5e55<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u4e26\u975e\u55ae\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c0e\u81f4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u591a\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u56e0\u7d20\u5171\u540c\u7de8\u7e54\u7684\u6f2b\u9577\u707d\u96e3\u30021920\u5e74\u4ee3\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u5486\u54ee\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u300d\uff08\u82f1\u6587\uff1aRoaring Twenties\uff09\uff1a\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7522\u6307\u6578\u671f\u5167\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7ffb\u500d\uff0c\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u6536\u97f3\u6a5f\u8207\u96fb\u6c23\u8a2d\u5099\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u666e\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0d\u904e\u7576\u6642\u4fe1\u8cb8\u904e\u5ea6\u5bec\u9b06\u50ac\u751f\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6295\u8cc7\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u69d3\u687f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9054\u52309\u500d\uff0c\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u8207\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u56b4\u91cd\u812b\u7bc0\u3002\u57281929\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u7d93\u7d00\u5411\u6563\u6236\u501f\u51fa\u8d85\u904e80\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u65bc\u5b56\u5c55\u4fdd\u8b49\u91d1\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u8d85\u904e\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u7576\u6642\u6d41\u901a\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u7e3d\u984d\u3002\u540c\u6642\u8fb2\u7522\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u81ea1920\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5c0f\u9ea5\u3001\u68c9\u82b1\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u52301929\u5e74\uff0c\u904e\u5ea6\u501f\u8cb8\u64f4\u7522\u7684\u8fb2\u6c11\u5df2\u9677\u5165\u6578\u5e74\u7684\u56f0\u5883<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1929\u5e7410\u670824\u65e5\uff08\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u56db\uff09\u80a1\u5e02\u958b\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613\u6642\u6bb5\u5f8c\u5373\u51fa\u73fe\u62cb\u552e\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u81f310\u670829\u65e5\uff08\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e8c\uff09\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u5d29\u76e4\u53bb\u5230\u5931\u63a7\u7684\u5883\u6cc1\uff0c\u55ae\u65e5\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u5275\u4e0b1,600\u842c\u80a1\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u7d00\u9304\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u9280\u884c\u7206\u64e0\u514c\u6f6e\u3000\u8ca0\u8ca1\u5bcc\u6548\u61c9\u50b3\u5c0e\u5168\u7403<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u80a1\u50f9\u5927\u8dcc\u7684\u9006\u8f49\u8ca1\u5bcc\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u8010\u7528\u54c1\u92b7\u552e\u5927\u8dcc\uff0c\u758a\u52a0\u9280\u884c\u5012\u9589\u4ee4\u6050\u614c\u52a0\u5287\u3002\u57281930\u5e74\u79cb\u5929\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e2d\u897f\u90e8\u8fb2\u696d\u5730\u5340\u7684\u9280\u884c\u5012\u9589\uff0c\u96a8\u5f8c\u7dca\u63a5\u51fa\u73fe\u6b50\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u4ee4\u516c\u773e\u958b\u59cb\u5c0d\u9280\u884c\u55aa\u5931\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u57281929\u5e74\u81f31933\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d0430%\u9280\u884c\u5012\u9589\uff0c\u5ba2\u6236\u5931\u53bb\u5b58\u6b3e\u4e4b\u9918\uff0c\u4fe1\u8cb8\u5275\u9020\u6a5f\u5236\u4e5f\u906d\u53d7\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u91cf\uff08M2\uff09<a href=\"https:\/\/news.cnyes.com\/news\/print\/5922084\">\u5927\u5e45\u6536\u7e2e<\/a>\u4ee4\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u7372\u5f97\u8cb8\u6b3e\u9032\u884c\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u518d\u6df1\u5316\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u591a\u9280\u884c\u696d\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e6%9c%80-%e5%84%aa%e6%83%a0-%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87\/\">\u6700\u512a\u60e0\u5229\u7387<\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e7%99%bc-%e9%88%94-%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c\/\">\u767c\u9214\u9280\u884c<\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c-%e7%b7%a8%e8%99%9f-%e4%bb%a3%e7%a2%bc\/\">\u9280\u884c\u7de8\u865f<\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e4%bf%9d%e9%9a%aa%e7%ae%b1-%e9%8a%80%e8%a1%8c-%e6%af%94%e8%bc%83-%e6%81%92%e7%94%9f-%e5%8c%af%e8%b1%90-%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b-%e4%ba%a4%e9%80%9a-%e6%94%b6%e8%b2%bb\/\">\u9280\u884c\u4fdd\u96aa\u7bb1<\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e6%b8%af%e5%85%83-%e5%ae%9a%e6%9c%9f-%e5%ad%98%e6%ac%be\/\">\u6e2f\u5143\u5b9a\u5b58<\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/usd-time-deposit\/\"><strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u5b9a\u5b58<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/2025%e5%b9%b46%e6%9c%88%ef%bc%9a%e9%a6%99%e6%b8%af%e4%ba%ba%e6%b0%91%e5%b9%a3%e5%ae%9a%e6%9c%9f%e5%ad%98%e6%ac%be%e6%9c%80%e9%ab%98%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e4%b8%80%e8%a6%bd-%e6%b8%af%e5%85%83%e5%ae%9a\/\"><strong>\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63<\/strong><\/a><strong>\uff5c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/best-usd-time-deposit-rate-hong-kong\/\"><strong>USD Fixed Deposit Rates<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Irving Fisher\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u50b5\u52d9-\u901a\u7e2e\u7406\u8ad6\u300d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cooperative-individualism.org\/fisher-irving_the-debt-deflation-theory-of-great-depressions-1933-oct.pdf\">\u89e3\u91cb<\/a>\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u6642\u7684\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hongkongfinancenews.com\/%E8%B3%A4-%E7%89%A9-%E9%AC%A5-%E7%AA%AE-%E4%BA%BA\/\">\u8ce4\u7269\u9b25\u7aae\u4eba<\/a>\u300d\u7684\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\uff1a\u7269\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c0e\u81f4\u4f01\u696d\u5be6\u969b\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u52a0\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u4f01\u696d\u5728\u7121\u53ef\u5948\u4f55\u4e0b\u62cb\u552e\u8cc7\u7522\u511f\u9084\u50b5\u52d9\uff0c\u518d\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u58d3\u4f4e\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7522\u5927\u6e1b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\u75311929\u5e74\u76843.2%\u98c6\u5347\u81f31933\u5e74\u768424.9%\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5728\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u793e\u6703\u5b89\u5168\u7db2\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u6536\u5165\u6e05\u96f6\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u8fd1\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u5f9e\u672a\u9054\u5230\u5982\u6b64\u9ad8\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\uff0c\u4f8b\u59822008\u5e74\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u57282009\u5e7410\u6708\u9054\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\u4ea6\u53ea\u662f\u7d0410%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u540c\u6642\u5728\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u5949\u884c\u300c\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u300d\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u7684\u554f\u984c\u8fc5\u901f\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u8513\u5ef6\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u7576\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u53d7\u5230\u9280\u884c\u5371\u6a5f\u5c0e\u81f4\u8ca8\u5e63\u6536\u7e2e\u3001\u4e0a\u8abf\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u4e86\u9632\u6b62\u9ec3\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u88ab\u8feb\u8ddf\u96a8\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3001\u63a8\u884c\u7dca\u7e2e\u6027\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u5011\u570b\u5167\u7d93\u6fdf\u5df2\u7d93\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u901a\u904e\u95dc\u7a05\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u901a\u904e\u9650\u5236\u9032\u53e3\u4f86\u4fdd\u8b77\u7f8e\u570b\u8fb2\u6c11\u548c\u88fd\u9020\u696d\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u5f15\u767c\u5168\u7403\u5831\u5fa9\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u7d1b\u7d1b\u63d0\u9ad8\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u9032\u53e3\u7a05\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u6025\u5287\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u548c\u9032\u53e3\u4e00\u540c\u8170\u65ac\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u6700\u7d42\u662f\u7531\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u300c\u89e3\u6c7a\u300d\u3002\u5f9e1940\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u958b\u59cb\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u91cd\u6574\u8ecd\u5099\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u4f54GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7531\u539f\u5148\u7d0410%\u98c6\u5347\u81f3\u6230\u722d\u671f\u9593\u768440%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u8fc5\u901f\u5438\u6536\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u5269\u9918\u52de\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u6062\u5fa9\u5168\u6c11\u5c31\u696d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u6c92\u6709\u5b98\u65b9\u6a5f\u69cb\u4f5c\u6b63\u5f0f\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u4f46\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u754c\u4e0d\u4e4f\u5c08\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u70ba\u6b64\u4f5c\u91cf\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Gregory Mankiw\u5c6c\u5b78\u754c\u5e38\u7528\u91cf\u5316\u6a19\u6e96\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/fandd\/issues\/series\/back-to-basics\/recession#:~:text=There%20is%20no%20formal%20definition,in%20advanced%20economies%20since%201960.\">\u6307<\/a>\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u6700\u88ab\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u9580\u6abb\u67092\u500b\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6301\u7e8c2\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u6216\u55ae\u4e00\u5e74\u4efd\u5167\u5be6\u969bGDP\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3\u5c1110%\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\u5c0e\u81f42009\u5e74\u7f8e\u570bGDP\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5e45\u5ea6\u7d044%\uff0c\u4f46\u9060\u672a\u89f8\u53ca10%\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u9580\u6abb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u66f4\u591a\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u7387\uff5c<a 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