{"id":9081,"date":"2026-06-21T01:03:02","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T17:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/?p=9081"},"modified":"2026-06-22T11:59:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T03:59:59","slug":"%e9%bb%91-%e5%a4%a9%e9%b5%9d-%e7%81%b0-%e7%8a%80%e7%89%9b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e9%bb%91-%e5%a4%a9%e9%b5%9d-%e7%81%b0-%e7%8a%80%e7%89%9b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u8207\u7070\u7280\u725b\uff1a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5fc5\u9808\u8a8d\u8b58\u76842\u5927\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u8853\u8a9e"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9082\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-747x420.png 747w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b-1068x601.png 1068w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/\u9ed1-\u5929\u9d5d-\u7070-\u7280\u725b.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5287\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u8ca1\u7d93\u8853\u8a9e\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300d\u8207\u300c\u7070\u7280\u725b\u300d\u983b\u7e41\u51fa\u73fe\u65bc\u5831\u5c0e\u4e4b\u4e2d\u30022026\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u53f8\u53f8\u9577\u9673\u8302\u6ce2\u5728\u8a55\u4f30\u672c\u6e2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u6642\u4fbf<a href=\"https:\/\/www.info.gov.hk\/gia\/general\/202601\/16\/P2026011600406.htm\">\u660e\u78ba\u6307\u51fa<\/a>\uff0c\u5916\u570d\u98a8\u96aa\u53ea\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u5f37\u8abf\u5fc5\u9808\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8b66\u60d5\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u9632\u7bc4\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300d\u548c\u300c\u7070\u7280\u725b\u300d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5316\u89e3\u98a8\u96aa\u65bc\u5fae\u6642\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u9019\u5169\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5206\u5225\u8207\u5167\u6db5\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u8b58\u5225\u4e0d\u540c\u985e\u578b\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u790e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-table-of-contents uagb-toc__align-left uagb-toc__columns-1  uagb-block-e82b689b      \"\n\t\t\t\t\tdata-scroll= \"1\"\n\t\t\t\t\tdata-offset= \"30\"\n\t\t\t\t\tstyle=\"\"\n\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uagb-toc__wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uagb-toc__title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTable Of Contents\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uagb-toc__list-wrap \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<ol class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><a href=\"#\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u82073\u5927\u7279\u5fb5\" class=\"uagb-toc-link__trigger\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u82073\u5927\u7279\u5fb5<\/a><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><a href=\"#\u7070\u7280\u725b\u6548\u61c9\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u89e3\u6790\" class=\"uagb-toc-link__trigger\">\u7070\u7280\u725b\u6548\u61c9\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u89e3\u6790<\/a><ul class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><a href=\"#\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u8207\u7070\u7280\u725b\u7684\u5206\u5225\" class=\"uagb-toc-link__trigger\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u8207\u7070\u7280\u725b\u7684\u5206\u5225<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class=\"uagb-toc__list\"><a href=\"#\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u8207\u7070\u7280\u725b\u98a8\u96aa\" class=\"uagb-toc-link__trigger\">\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u8207\u7070\u7280\u725b\u98a8\u96aa<\/a><\/ul><\/ol>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u82073\u5927\u7279\u5fb5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u6e90\u81ea\u5b78\u8005Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u65bc2007\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.books.com.tw\/products\/0010509916?srsltid=AfmBOoq7oTE4JJbwTX7x9Y2WpkFzIrCWGOgPB6_Ef7-VXIxGm9BRa0bn\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u6548\u61c9<\/a>\u300b\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable\">The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5178\u6545\u4f86\u81ea1697\u5e74\u8377\u862d\u63a2\u96aa\u5bb6\u5728\u897f\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9e\u9996\u6b21\u767c\u73fe\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7684\u53f2\u5be6\u2014\u2014\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u5805\u4fe1\u6240\u6709\u5929\u9d5d\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u55ae\u4e00\u767c\u73fe\u4fbf\u5fb9\u5e95\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u5343\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u4f2f\u85c9\u6b64\u6bd4\u55bb\uff0c\u63cf\u8ff0\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u767c\u751f\u524d\u7121\u6cd5\u60f3\u50cf\u3001\u767c\u751f\u5f8c\u537b\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u300c\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u300d\u7684\u6975\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u5927\u82f1\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u66f8<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/black-swan-event\">\u6574\u7406<\/a>\uff0c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5177\u5099\u4e09\u5927\u7279\u5fb5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6975\u7aef\u7a00\u6709\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4f4e\u5f97\u7121\u6cd5\u5f9e\u904e\u5f80\u7d93\u9a57\u63a8\u65b7<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u885d\u64ca\u529b\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u767c\u751f\u4fbf\u5c0d\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6216\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u6df1\u9060\u5f71\u97ff<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e8b\u5f8c\u53ef\u89e3\u91cb\u6027\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u7e3d\u80fd\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u5f8c\u5efa\u69cb\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u770b\u4f3c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u9810\u6e2c<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>2008\u5e74\u96f7\u66fc\u5144\u5f1f\uff08Lehman Brothers\uff09\u7834\u7522\u89f8\u767c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u5178\u578b\u4f8b\u5b50\u2014\u2014\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5206\u6790\u986f\u793a\u4fe1\u8cb8\u6ce1\u6cab\u65e9\u5df2\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5d29\u6f70\u524d\u9bae\u6709\u4eba\u9810\u898b\u5176\u56b4\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u591a\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d-%e9%a2%a8%e6%9a%b4\/\">\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4<\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f-%e8%95%ad%e6%a2%9d\/\">1929\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d<\/a>\uff5c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/hk\/magazine\/zh-hant\/meme-%e8%82%a1-gme-%e4%ba%8b%e4%bb%b6\/\">GameStop\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7070\u7280\u725b\u6548\u61c9\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u89e3\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027\uff0c\u300c\u7070\u7280\u725b\u300d\u5247\u6307\u5411\u53e6\u4e00\u985e\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u6b64\u6982\u5ff5\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u4f5c\u5bb6\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u6790\u5e2bMichele Wucker\u65bc2013\u5e741\u6708\u5728\u9054\u6c83\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8ad6\u58c7\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u51762016\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eslite.com\/product\/1001122732581861?srsltid=AfmBOoqSgnIkxoXvD0q2IKFdmot3jjihnqqSgvW-Tl7iTYY-NwVBXE8D\">\u7070\u7280\u725b\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u8a8d\u6e05\u6211\u5011\u5ffd\u8996\u7684\u660e\u986f\u5371\u96aa\u4e26\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5<\/a>\u300b\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Gray-Rhino-Recognize-Obvious-Dangers\/dp\/125005382X\">The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore<\/a>\uff09\u4e2d\u7cfb\u7d71\u95e1\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michele Wucker\u9020\u6b64\u8a5e\u7684\u9748\u611f\u9817\u70ba\u6709\u8da3\uff1a\u7576\u5979\u8207\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f01\u696d\u5f8b\u5e2b\u670b\u53cb\u8a0e\u8ad6\u300c\u5de8\u5927\u3001\u660e\u986f\u4e14\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u300d\u6642\uff0c\u7280\u725b\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u81ea\u7136\u6d6e\u73fe\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u958b\u73a9\u7b11\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u300c\u9ed1\u7280\u725b\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6e25\u514b\u767c\u73fe\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u9ed1\u7280\u725b\u9084\u662f\u767d\u7280\u725b\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u7070\u8272\u7684\u2014\u2014\u9019\u500b\u767c\u73fe\u4ee4\u5979\u610f\u8b58\u5230\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5f80\u5f80\u56e0\u540d\u7a31\u7684\u8aa4\u5c0e\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e8b\u7269\u672c\u8cea\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64daMichele Wucker<a href=\"https:\/\/wucker.thegrayrhino.com\/writing\/the-gray-rhino\/\">\u5b9a\u7fa9<\/a>\uff0c\u7070\u7280\u725b\u662f\u6307\u300c\u767c\u751f\u6a5f\u7387\u9ad8\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u537b\u7d93\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u8996\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u300d\u3002\u9019\u985e\u98a8\u96aa\u4e26\u975e\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\u9a5a\u559c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9810\u8b66\u548c\u660e\u986f\u8b49\u64da\u51fa\u73fe\u5f8c\u624d\u6700\u7d42\u7206\u767c\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e94\u968e\u6bb5\u53cd\u61c9\u6846\u67b6\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u70ba\u300c\u5426\u8a8d\u300d\uff0c\u5373\u62d2\u7d55\u627f\u8a8d\u5a01\u8105\u5b58\u5728<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u968e\u6bb5\u70ba\u300c\u5f97\u904e\u4e14\u904e\u300d\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u6210\u7acb\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6216\u767c\u51fa\u5831\u544a\u4f46\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5be6\u8cea\u884c\u52d5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e09\u968e\u6bb5\u70ba\u300c\u8a3a\u65b7\u300d\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u554f\u984c\u4f46\u9072\u9072\u672a\u80fd\u57f7\u884c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u56db\u968e\u6bb5\u70ba\u300c\u6050\u614c\u300d\uff0c\u5371\u6a5f\u81e8\u8fd1\u6642\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u5f80\u5f80\u904e\u6fc0\u4e14\u5931\u7576<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e94\u968e\u6bb5\u70ba\u300c\u884c\u52d5\u300d\uff0c\u5728\u885d\u64ca\u767c\u751f\u5f8c\u624d\u63a1\u53d6\u679c\u65b7\u63aa\u65bd<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 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