{"id":1833,"date":"2020-06-12T17:54:51","date_gmt":"2020-06-12T09:54:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/?p=1833"},"modified":"2024-04-02T14:14:49","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T06:14:49","slug":"volatility-did-not-disappear-with-the-rally-why-markets-will-remain-rocky-in-the-months-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/volatility-did-not-disappear-with-the-rally-why-markets-will-remain-rocky-in-the-months-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatility Did Not Disappear With The Rally As The Recent Pullback Shows"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The\ncoronavirus pandemic has sent the global economy into a tailspin. Millions of\npeople have lost their jobs, financial markets have been hit hard, and supply\nchains have faced major disruptions as factories worldwide shut down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In\nthe US, the world\u2019s largest economy, the record-long bull run is over after\nalmost 11 years. In its place, a recession is well underway as the US economy\nshrank at a 4.8% annualised pace in the first quarter, its biggest slump since\n2008. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists are anticipating a U-shaped recovery, a change from the rapid V-shaped recovery that was initially expected. Many are predicting a significant Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline for at least the next two quarters of 2020<\/a>, and possibly extending into 2021 and beyond if the world recovery proves muted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Paradoxically, despite dismal economic data and first quarter corporate earnings reports, the stock market has rallied over the past weeks as investors become increasingly optimistic about a potential COVID-19 treatment and the reopening of the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But bear in mind that sentiment can turn on a dime. If the reopening of the economy fails to materialise, we may very well see stocks pulling back again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX levels remain elevated <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

One thing is clear: It will likely take months for investors to get a clearer sense of the full economic impact of the pandemic. Amid this uncertainty, the Chicago Board Options Exchange\u2019s Volatility Index (or the \u2018VIX\u2019 as it is better known), remains high at a level of 36.52 at this time of writing, well above its historic average of 18 to 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Often\nreferred to as Wall Street\u2019s fear gauge, the VIX is designed to reflect\ninvestors\u2019 future view of US stock market volatility based on the option prices\nof the S&P 500 index – in other words, how much they think the index will\nfluctuate in the next 30 days. When the VIX level surges, it means that traders\nin the S&P 500 options market expect market volatility to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Data source:\nBloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As\nshown in the chart above, the VIX typically trades inversely with stock prices.\nFuelled by the pandemic and global oil price rout, the VIX (represented by the\nblue line) soared to record highs through March while the S&P 500 (yellow\nline) recorded historic plunges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatility is here to stay<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While VIX levels may have moderated since March, we are not out of the woods yet from a market volatility standpoint. The VIX is still comparatively high. It is more than double the level it was at prior to the spread of the coronavirus; the VIX closed at 14 on February 19, as the S&P 500 hit its all-time high. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the VIX is a gauge of market volatility, then the VIX futures market is a prediction for where the VIX will be in the future. Despite the rally we saw in April and May, VIX index futures have been trading higher over the past month, a clear sign that investors expect markets to remain volatile through the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such\nlonger-term volatility would be more consistent with past economic crises when\nmarkets faced multiple sell-offs over a prolonged number of months. Potential\naggravators include a resurgence in coronavirus infections in China and South\nKorea, and fresh US-China trade war uncertainty. Meanwhile, the upcoming US\npresidential election also stands to push volatility higher. In short, we may\nbe in a new volatility regime for the foreseeable future.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does the sustained high volatility mean for your\nportfolio?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Statistically, high market volatility tends to be\nassociated with lower or negative returns. Historically, when the VIX has\nexceeded 20, the Sharpe ratio is around 0.27. The Sharpe ratio is a metric\ninvestors use to measure the risk-adjusted returns<\/a> of an investment. The\nhigher the Sharpe ratio, the better the risk-adjusted return. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the VIX dips below 20, the Sharpe ratio\nincreases to around 0.53. Simply put, we can see that low market volatility\nusually results in higher risk-adjusted returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source:\n<\/em>Econompic Data<\/em><\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The compounding effect of losses <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to note that higher portfolio\nvolatility lowers potential portfolio returns in the long run due to\ncompounding. This is because the negative effect of volatility on portfolio\nperformance gets compounded over time. When a portfolio loses value, it means\nthat positive returns are earned on less money when the markets recover. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the returns needed to recoup the initial\nlosses grow substantially. A 33% loss requires a 50% portfolio gain just to\nbreak even. Even if stocks return to their pre-crisis performance, regaining\nthose losses could take several years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What can investors do? <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Amid the continued uncertainty in the markets right\nnow, investors must be prepared for volatility to remain at elevated levels for\nthe foreseeable future. One way to limit the impact of higher volatility on\nportfolio returns is to adopt a risk management strategy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For instance, Syfe\u2019s ARITM<\/sup> algorithm\nautomatically shifts portfolio asset allocation towards lower risk bonds and\ncommodities in response to a sustained increase in market volatility. Our\nobjective is to reduce total portfolio risk and ensure that it remains within\nan investor\u2019s chosen downside risk level. With this strategy, we help investors\navoid big losses in down markets while delivering better risk-adjusted returns\nfor them over time, with fewer significant drawdowns along the way. Case in\npoint: We have been consistently outperforming<\/a> the broader market\nand our benchmarks throughout the current downturn. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The right risk management strategy can shield\ninvestors from significant losses, preserve the strength of their portfolios,\nand position them to capture the upside as the market makes its eventual\nrecovery. Indeed, when volatility recedes, Syfe\u2019s ARI algorithm will again\nincrease the proportion of equities across portfolios so investors can capture\nthe market upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article first appeared on Finance.sg as a guest article by Richard Yeh, Head of Portfolio Construction and Risk Management at Syfe. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We may be in a new volatility regime for the foreseeable future. A risk-management strategy can prepare investors for that. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1557,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,289],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-grow-wealth","8":"category-market-insights"},"acf":{"readingTime":null,"authorName":null,"authorThumbnail":null,"BLUE_TIER":null,"BLACK_TIER":null,"GOLD_TIER":null,"PRIVATE_WEALTH_TIER":null,"PRE_AML":null,"POST_AML":null,"NO_GLOBAL_PORTFOLIO":null,"NO_REITS_PORTFOLIO":null,"NO_EQUITY_PORTFOLIO":null,"NO_CASH_PORTFOLIO":null,"HAS_ADVISOR":null,"INVESTMENT_PORTFOLIO_AUM":null,"AFTER_AML_DATE":null,"AFTER_ACCOUNT_CREATED_DATE":null},"yoast_head":"\nVolatility Did Not Disappear With The Rally As The Recent Pullback Shows<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/volatility-did-not-disappear-with-the-rally-why-markets-will-remain-rocky-in-the-months-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Volatility Did Not Disappear With The Rally As The Recent Pullback Shows\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We may be in a new volatility regime for the foreseeable future. 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