{"id":2089,"date":"2020-08-21T17:11:10","date_gmt":"2020-08-21T09:11:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/?p=2089"},"modified":"2024-04-02T14:14:49","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T06:14:49","slug":"market-outlook-the-nascent-global-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/market-outlook-the-nascent-global-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Outlook: The Nascent Global Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"600\" data-attachment-id=\"2090\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/market-outlook-the-nascent-global-recovery\/blog-banner-time-to-invest-98\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98.png\" data-orig-size=\"1000,600\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98-300x180.png\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98.png\" src=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2090\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98-696x418.png 696w, https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Blog-Banner-Time-to-invest-98-700x420.png 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nglobal economy is showing signs of recovery. Economic data around the world has\nbroadly outperformed expectations so far.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While\nconditions remain challenging for many sectors worldwide &#8211; notably tourism and\naviation &#8211; we see signs that the global manufacturing industry is slowly\ngrowing again. The global purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI) from IHS Markit for\nJuly, at 50.3, is at its highest level in six months. A reading above 50\nindicates growth, and the higher the number, the faster the growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The services industry (sectors like finance, telecommunication, retail, transport, healthcare and other non-manufacturing activities) is also in recovery. The global services PMI increased from 48.0 in June to 50.5 in July, a 13-month high. After months of decline, this uptick indicates modest growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Singapore&#8217;s recovery<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In\nSingapore, several sectors have also remained resilient despite the broader\neconomic contraction. According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry\u2019s\nquarterly economic report, the finance and insurance sectors have grown.\nPrecision engineering, electronics and biomedical manufacturing expanded as\nwell.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At\na time when Singapore\u2019s economy contracted 6.7% in the first half of the year,\nthe government is continuing to support workers and businesses affected by the\npandemic. S$8 billion worth of measures were recently announced, including a\nseven-month extension of wage subsidies and a new initiative to bolster hiring\nin still-growing sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Risks to the global economic recovery<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(a)\nThe vaccine race<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>At\nthis moment, a full global economic recovery very much hinges on when an\neffective vaccine is found. Russia has produced the first batch of its new\nCOVID-19 vaccine but there are safety concerns and skepticism among the\ninternational scientific community. The vaccine was approved even before it\nunderwent extensive clinical trials that would normally involve thousands of\nparticipants over many months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even as Russia makes plans to roll out its vaccine\nby the end of this month, global efforts at finding an effective (and safe)\nvaccine continue. A recent World Health Organisation (WHO) report showed that\n28 candidate vaccines are in the clinical evaluation phase, while 139 others\nare still in the pre-clinical evaluation phase. These efforts offer some hope\nthat a safe and effective vaccine could be deployed (optimistically) by this\nyear-end or perhaps early next year. If successful, this would give global\neconomies a significant boost.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(b)\nUS Election Year Politicking&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Another key risk to the\nglobal recovery is the US\u2019 own economic recovery, which now appears less certain\nin light of its impasse on new fiscal stimulus talks &#8211; a result of the US\nelection year politicking between Republicans and Democrats.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nUS is the world\u2019s largest economy, accounting for 22% of total economic output.\nA sharp drop-off in government spending &#8211; a reality that could come to pass as\nRepublicans and Democrats remain split over renewed coronavirus relief &#8211; could\nderail the US\u2019 nascent recovery.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While\nplans to give eligible Americans a $1,200 payment have been approved, no\nconsensus has been reached regarding unemployment benefits, which expired in\nJuly. If not extended, this could lead to a steep drop in income and a consequent\ndecline in consumer spending.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\nalso remains to be seen how the US federal government plans to address\npandemic-related budget shortfalls among state and local governments. State and\nlocal aid will be needed for a sustained economic recovery. Without them,\nAmericans could face the prospect of government layoffs and spending cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(c)\nOngoing US-China Tensions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Current\nUS-China tensions appear to be largely brushed aside by market observers as US\nelection year drama and rhetoric by the Trump administration, with little real\nconsequences on the US economy being factored in by financial analysts.\nHowever, the continuing deterioration of the US-China relationship could take\nan unexpected turn with dire consequences for the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Markets are sustaining their momentum\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Notwithstanding\nthe preamble above, as the S&amp;P 500 continues to notch gains, it is worth\nremembering that the stock market is not the economy. In large part, the\nsubstantial liquidity injected by the US Federal Reserve Bank has provided\nsustained fuel to the US financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over\nthe past months, we have seen large indices like the S&amp;P 500 advance to new\nhighs despite economic concerns. Tech, e-commerce and communications-related\ncompanies led the charge as consumers stayed in and worked from home.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth stocks in particular have emerged as the clear winner. The main S&amp;P 500 index rose 5.5% in July, but the S&amp;P 500 Growth Index delivered returns of 6.9%. Contrast this with the S&amp;P 500 Value Index which eked out gains of just 3.7% in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Cyclical resurgence<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Lately,\nwe are seeing signs that the market&#8217;s breadth is widening as well. After months\nof dominance by tech stocks, energy, financial and industrial stocks are now\nposting gains. In August so far, some of the biggest winners in the stock market\nhave been FedEx Corp., Halliburton Co. and Prudential Financial Inc., all of\nwhich have risen at least 11%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Transportation stocks are also up this month. This is usually seen as positive reinforcement for the broader market as companies that transport goods, materials and people keep the economy running.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stay the course<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The rally in cyclical stocks should also help allay fears among some investors that a tech-driven rally might be vulnerable to sudden reversals. The strength in more cyclically sensitive sectors provides an important indicator that the market rally might be sustainable, albeit with some degree of uncertainty.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, notwithstanding the market uncertainty, our view is that investors should continue staying the course with their long-term investments. Short-term volatility is still to be expected, so our advice is to put emphasis on diversification and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/global-ari\">risk-management<\/a>, even as the economy moves towards a gradual recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The global economy is showing signs of recovery. Economic data around the world has broadly outperformed expectations so far.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2090,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,289],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2089","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-grow-wealth","8":"category-market-insights"},"acf":{"readingTime":null,"authorName":null,"authorThumbnail":null,"BLUE_TIER":null,"BLACK_TIER":null,"GOLD_TIER":null,"PRIVATE_WEALTH_TIER":null,"PRE_AML":null,"POST_AML":null,"NO_GLOBAL_PORTFOLIO":null,"NO_REITS_PORTFOLIO":null,"NO_EQUITY_PORTFOLIO":null,"NO_CASH_PORTFOLIO":null,"HAS_ADVISOR":null,"INVESTMENT_PORTFOLIO_AUM":null,"AFTER_AML_DATE":null,"AFTER_ACCOUNT_CREATED_DATE":null},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Market Outlook: The Nascent Global Recovery<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.syfe.com\/magazine\/market-outlook-the-nascent-global-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Outlook: The Nascent Global Recovery\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The global economy is showing signs of recovery. 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