Trump’s back, and so is a bold legislative play. Officially known as H.R. 1, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBBA) is a sweeping package aiming to reshape taxes, spending, and social policies all at once. Here’s what you need to know.
What Is the “One Big Beautiful Bill”?
This is Trump’s all-in-one legislative push, a massive bill combining tax cuts, defence and border spending, and cuts to social programs. First passed by the House in May, the Senate has now approved its own version in early July.
The goal remains clear: deliver a major policy win just in time for Independence Day—and it did.
What’s Inside the Bill?
- Tax Cuts Extended: Permanently extends Trump-era individual and corporate tax cuts; raises SALT cap to $40K (up from current $10K limit)
- Child & Income Credits: Temporarily boosts Child Tax Credit to $2,500; adds deductions for seniors, tipped income, and overtime pay.
- More for defence & Border: Adds $150B to defence spending and up to $140B for border security infrastructure and staffing.
- Rollback of Clean Energy Incentives: Repeals EV and renewable energy tax credits; blocks state AI regulation and new EPA rules.
- Cuts to Social Programs: Introduces Medicaid work requirements, reduces SNAP funding, and tightens student aid.
- Bigger Budget, Bigger Deficit: Raises debt ceiling by up to $5T; CBO estimates $3T in added deficits over 10 years.
How Could It Impact the Economy?
The bill is fiscally expansive, with big tax cuts and more spending without full offsets. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it could add $2.8 to $3.4 trillion to the national debt. This could push long-term interest rates higher and potentially delay any Fed rate cuts. While Republicans argue growth will help close the gap, economists remain cautious. The bill may provide a short-term economic boost, but longer-term concerns about fiscal sustainability and borrowing costs are rising.
What Does It Mean for Markets?
Equities: Equity markets would likely see mixed effects. A permanent corporate tax cut and sustained consumer tax relief are generally positive for corporate profits and stock prices. Indeed, Reuters notes Wall Street strategists expect some upside for stocks, though mostly modest since many cuts merely continue existing law. Overall, we see a modest sector rotation rather than a broad market surge.
Bonds: Higher deficits call for increased Treasury issuance, which may keep long-term yields anchored at current levels. Meanwhile, short-term rates could still move lower as the Fed continues cutting rates. We prefer intermediate durations of 3 to 7 years.
Winners, Losers, and What to Watch
Potential Winners
- Defence/aerospace sector (benefiting from higher military spending)
- Oil, gas, and coal producer
- Traditional automakers (as EV credits disappear)
- High-income households (from tax and SALT changes)
- Service workers (with new tax break on tips and overtime)
Likely Losers
- Clean energy & EV sectors (loss of tax credits)
- Healthcare providers and insurers (Medicaid cuts)
- Low-income families (reduced SNAP/Medicaid support)
- US real estate sector (rising rates impact affordability)
Bottom Line
This bill marks a clear shift: fewer social supports, more tax relief, and bigger bets on defence and domestic production. It reshapes the policy landscape and could reshape your portfolio too.
Stay ahead of the fiscal changes with Syfe’s Core portfolios, which carry a mix of equities, bonds, and commodities to capture the upsides of each asset class and navigate volatility.
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